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EUR/USD appreciates above 1.0900, upside seems limited due to Middle East tensions

■  EUR/USD holds gains despite increasing risk aversion sentiment on Monday.

■  Israeli intelligence expects Iran to launch an attack within the next few days.

■  Fed Governor Bowman suggests that the central bank may not be prepared to cut rates in September.


EUR/USD halts its four-day losing streak,BNB price in INR trading around 1.0920 during the Asian session on Monday. Traders await the preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the Eurozone's second quarter, which is set to be released on Wednesday.


The risk-sensitive Euro might encounter difficulties due to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. On Sunday, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant informed US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin that Iran's military movements suggest preparations for a major strike on Israel. This potential action is reportedly in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in late July, according to Axios writer Barak Ravid.


On the USD front, investors will likely focus on US producer inflation data set to be released on Tuesday and consumer inflation figures on Wednesday. Traders are looking for confirmation that price growth remains stable.


Expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September could put pressure on the US Dollar (USD), potentially providing support for the EUR/USD pair. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 51.5% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut at the September meeting, a significant increase from the 26.0% probability reported a week ago.


On Sunday, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman stated that she continues to see upside risks for inflation and ongoing strength in the labor market. This suggests that the Fed may not be prepared to cut rates at their next meeting in September, according to Bloomberg.

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